Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The typical number of daily killings each month in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government data. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder figures might not point to better national stability.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This information was shared by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these past months is very significant,” Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the least number of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, security experts urged caution that using murder data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was additionally concerning because it could hide periods when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However despite these actions, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.